Climate favours the 'Russian Pinochet'

relaxing out in the dacha belt by lakes and in forests which swarm with

mosquitos. The steady growl of the city's traffic has been reduced to a

whisper.

There are whispers too of discontent and of troubles to come when the

summer ends and Russians face the long, harsh winter. In autumn trouble

is promised from many quarters, but then trouble has been promised every

autumn since the coup of 1991. It failed to materialise in 1992, but the

promises were doubly fulfilled in October of last year with the

political convulsion which culminated in the tanks being brought out to

storm the parliament building.

No-one is talking about tanks this summer; more about civil unrest.

Alexander Rutskoy, the former Vice-President and general, who led the

''parliamentary'' forces against President Yeltsin, predicts that the

unrest will begin in October. He, perhaps, should know better than most.

Now another general's name has come to the fore. Alexander Lebed is

very different from the typical picture of a senior Russian military

officer. First of all he is just 34 years old. Secondly, his threat to

the current Russian leadership is likely to be political rather than

military.

General Lebed commands Russia's 14th Army, which has been stranded in

the Trans-Dniestria region of the independent republic of Moldova for

the past three years. He has come to prominence following an interview

with the influential newspaper Izvestia in which he praised the former

Chilean dictator General Augusto Pinochet and suggested that Russia

might do well with someone of a similar nature at the helm of the ship

of state. It was, he said, necessary to restore order.

The interview brought about his dismissal as commander of the 14th

Army at the hands of the Defence Minister, Pavel Grachev, not because of

the Pinochet reference but because he admitted that he would like, one

day, to have Grachev's job.

But the sacking has not taken effect. An officer of Lebed's seniority

can, it appears, only be removed from his post by President Yeltsin and

the President, who has not been particularly active of late, has not

moved on the matter so far.

Lebed has enemies not only among the top brass of the Russian Army but

also among the political leadership of the Slavic population in Moldova

who have set up their own republic on the left bank of the Dnieper

river. His declaration that these people were merely ''a bunch of

thieves and alcoholics'' did little to endear him to them.

The physical isolation of General Lebed in a distant province of the

former empire has been compared to General Franco's position as a

commander in the Canary Islands before his move to Morocco and later to

the Spanish mainland to take on the democratic forces.

The prospect held out by many political insiders in Moscow, however,

is that Lebed's military days are virtually at an end and his career as

a politician may be about to begin. Lebed is on record as saying that he

is giving serious consideration to such an option.

A source within the 14th Army indicated support. ''His removal would

be harmful to the Army but beneficial for Russia. He is the man the

country and the people need just now.''

There is backing from other quarters too. The business newspaper

Kommersant Daily wrote on Friday that ''he could well be the strong hand

capable of restoring law and order in Russia''. Izvestia, normally a

staunch defender of democracy and of President Yeltsin, also spoke

highly of Lebed and expressed the hope that his ''military and

socio-political'' career would not come to an end. ''If it does, this

would constitute another serious blunder by the President and his

retinue,'' it said in an editorial comment.

Most Russians I have spoken to hold out some hope for Lebed as a

future leader. Despite his admiration for Pinochet, and (one must

conclude) his intention to emulate the Chilean dictator, he is regarded

in Russian terms as a democrat -- he was one of the generals to oppose

the 1991 coup and defiantly joined President Yeltsin, Vice-President

Rutskoy and others in the Russian White House in those momentous days.

All the indications are that a Russian Pinochet would have far less

trouble with the population than the original of the species had in

Chile. Those ideologically opposed to dictatorship are dwindling in

numbers. The trade unions are disorganised and legitimate business

people are yearning for stability.

Ironically the strongest ''defenders of democracy'' to emerge in such

a scenario could well be the corrupt bureaucracy and the openly criminal

elements who have benefited most from Russia's chaotic attempts to

become a modern democracy.

While Pinochet filled the main sports stadium in Santiago with

prisoners of conscience, such is the disillusionment with Russia's brand

of democracy that the stadiums of the land might be filled with cheering

supporters of the new regime.

* Seamus Martin is Moscow Correspondent for the Irish Times.